It's very likely the difference between success and failure in Forex / CFD trading mainly depends on which assets you choose to trade each week and in which direction , and not by the exact methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits.
So, at the beginning of the week, it is a good idea to look at the big picture of what is developing in the market as a whole and how such developments are influenced by fundamental macros , technical factors and market sentiment. There are some long-term trends in the market right now, which could be profitably exploited.
Fundamental analysis and market sentiment
When markets open for the following week, they are likely to focus on last Friday's US jobs data and average earnings data . Last Friday saw the lowest number of net nonfarm jobs created in any month since 2020 (209,000), although average earnings were shown to have risen more than expected, by 0.4%, not 0. ,3% expected. These data were not well received by the market, which sees them as a sign that US inflation is still somewhat high despite its recent decline. The FOMC meeting minutes released earlier in the week contained no real new information that could impact the market.
This focus on last week probably won't last long as next week brings the extremely important US CPI data and the importance of this cannot be stressed enough.
Markets ended the week with major stock indexes mostly lower, although many of them recently made long-term highs, especially in the United States, and the US dollar also fell.
Other key data released last week were:
- US JOLTS Job Openings – slightly lower than expected, matching lower NFP data, suggesting the job market is cooling.
- US ISM Services & Manufacturing PMI – services were higher than expected, manufacturing lower.
- US unemployment rate – as expected, remained unchanged at 3.6%.
- RBA Cash Rate & Rate Statement – as expected, the RBA approved a rate increase, which slightly affected the Australian.
- Swiss CPI (inflation) only increased by 0.1% month-on-month, when it was expected to rise by 0.2%.
- OPEC meetings – further production cuts agreed.
- Canadian Unemployment: Expected to rise slightly, but rose a bit more than expected, from 5.2% to 5.4%.
The week ahead: 10 – 14 July
It is likely that next week the markets will record a level of volatility slightly higher than last week, as there will be a very important data release on inflation in the US as well as two important central bank policy meetings. This week's major data releases are , in order of importance:
- US CPI (inflation)
- US PPI
- Bank of Canada overnight rate and rate statement
- RBNZ official cash rate and rate statement
- UK GDP
- Preliminary UoM of US consumer sentiment
- UK Unemployment Claims (Changing Number of Claimants)
Friday will be a public holiday in France and New Zealand.
Credit by DailyForex.com
EN 
IT 
