Markets will be closely watching the release of US inflation data today, which is expected to show a decline from 3.4% to 2.9%.
➡️ US inflation data will be released today, which is expected to fall from an annualized rate of 3.4% to 2.9%. If the number is lower, stocks are likely to rise and the dollar to fall; if higher, to sink stocks and strengthen the dollar. Monthly CPI is expected to fall from 0.3% to 0.2%, while core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 0.3%. The data will be watched closely as an indicator of the likelihood of a first Fed rate cut at its May meeting. A cut in March seems unrealistic unless the data shows an unachievable decline in the CPI.
➡️ US stock markets fell yesterday after initially hitting new record highs after the open. This happened in all major stock indexes, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and Dow Jones 30 . Trend traders will want to get involved on the long side, and day traders may want to consider trading these indexes long if they show bullish momentum after the market open. The S&P 500 remains above the key round figure of 5000.
➡️ Cocoa futures they fell slightly yesterday, after reaching a new multi-year high the day before. Trend traders will remain interested in this commodity on the Long side. It has shown a powerful bullish trend for over a year. Cocoa futures have risen more than 25% since the start of 2024.
➡️ Bitcoin has finally made a bullish breakout above the key resistance level at $48,675 and now testing the big round number at $50,000. I think bulls will be wise to wait until the daily close above the big round number at $50,000 before entering any new Long trades here.
➡️ In the Forex market, the euro has been the strongest major currency since Tokyo opened today. The New Zealand dollar was the weakest. The highest volatility has recently been observed in the currency pair USD/JPY and in crosses with the Yen, although this is starting to decline. The US dollar is moving little as it consolidates ahead of today's release of key US CPI (inflation) data.
➡️ Swiss inflation data will be released today, which is expected to show a strong monthly increase from 0.0% to 0.6%.
➡️ Change in UK claimant count (unemployment claims) data released a few minutes ago showed that the UK unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly and sharply, from 4.2% to 3.8%. This has strengthened the pound, with aggressive rate implications, as it suggests the economy may not be cooling as much as previously thought.
➡️ Bank of England governor Bailey said a few hours ago that he would not give too much weight to the possibility of the UK entering a technical recession, as will be seen when UK GDP data is published on Thursday, which is expected show a decline in GDP on a monthly basis. of 0.3%.
Credit by DailyForex.com
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